Outcomes following oesophagectomy in patients with oesophageal cancer: a secondary analysis of the ICNARC Case Mix Programme Database

Introduction: This report describes the case mix and outcomes of patients with oesophageal cancer admitted to adult critical care units following elective oesophageal surgery in England, Wales and Northern Ireland. Methods: Admissions to critical care following elective oesophageal surgery for malignancy were identified using data from the Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre (ICNARC) Case Mix Programme Database. Information on admissions between December 1995 and September 2007 were extracted and the association between in-hospital mortality and patient characteristics on admission to critical care was assessed using multiple logistic regression analysis. The performance of three prognostic models (Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) II, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II and the ICNARC physiology score) was also evaluated. Results: Between 1995 and 2007, there were 7227 admissions to 181 critical care units following oesophageal surgery for malignancy. Overall mortality in critical care was 4.4% and in-hospital mortality was 11%, although both declined steadily over time. Eight hundred and seventy-three (12.2%) patients were readmitted to critical care, most commonly for respiratory complications (49%) and surgical complications (25%). Readmitted patients had a critical care unit mortality of 24.7% and in-hospital mortality of 33.9%. Overall in-hospital mortality was associated with patient age, and various physiological measurements on admission to critical care (partial pressure of arterial oxygen (PaO2):fraction of inspired oxygen (FiO2) ratio, lowest arterial pH, mechanical ventilation, serum albumin, urea and creatinine). The three prognostic models evaluated performed poorly in measures of discrimination, calibration and goodness of fit. Conclusions: Surgery for oesophageal malignancy continues to be associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Age and organ dysfunction in the early postoperative period are associated with an increased risk of death. Postoperative serum albumin is confirmed as an additional prognostic factor. More work is required to determine how this knowledge may improve clinical management

Using Experience and Case History Data to Enhance the Design of Piled Foundations and Predict Behaviour Characteristics

This paper explores the process of piled foundation design and how it can benefit from the inclusion of previous test data and case histories from nearby or geologically similar sites. The interaction between the soil and the structure is critical to the behaviour of a pile and is a function of both the ground conditions and the method of pile construction. An accurate model of the ground conditions is required for the design, as is a detailed knowledge of the method of pile installation and its subsequent interaction with the soil. Where case histories are available they can be utilised to refine the design or to reduce the risk associated with a solution. This is currently often done in a subjective manner by the application of engineering judgement and personal experience. This paper discusses a quantitative method which can be used to employ data from case histories and provide an objective approach to the inclusion of existing knowledge and experience. Bayesian updating is utilised to improve the model of the ground conditions and subsequently the degree of uncertainty is reduced. The probability of failure has been seen to be reduced by this process, as demonstrated through the application an example situation

Improving 1-Year Outcomes of Infrainguinal Limb Revascularization: Population-Based Cohort Study of 104 000 Patients in England.

BACKGROUND: The availability and diversity of lower limb revascularization procedures have increased in England in the past decade. We investigated whether these developments in care have translated to improvements in patient pathways and outcomes. METHODS: Individual-patient records from Hospital Episode Statistics were used to identify 103 934 patients who underwent endovascular (angioplasty) or surgical (endarterectomy, profundaplasty, or bypass) lower limb revascularization for infrainguinal peripheral artery disease in England between January 2006 and December 2015. Major lower limb amputations and deaths within 1 year after revascularization were ascertained from Hospital Episode Statistics and Office for National Statistics mortality records. Competing risks regression was used to estimate the cumulative incidence of major amputation and death, adjusted for patient age, sex, comorbidity score, indication for the intervention (intermittent claudication, severe limb ischemia without record of tissue loss, severe limb ischemia with a record of ulceration, severe limb ischemia with a record of gangrene/osteomyelitis), and comorbid diabetes mellitus. RESULTS: The estimated 1-year risk of major amputation decreased from 5.7% (in 2006-2007) to 3.9% (in 2014-2015) following endovascular revascularization, and from 11.2% (2006-2007) to 6.6% (2014-2015) following surgical procedures. The risk of death after both types of revascularization also decreased. These trends were observed for all indication categories, with the largest reductions found in patients with severe limb ischemia with ulceration or gangrene. Overall, morbidity increased over the study period, and a larger proportion of patients was treated for the severe end of the peripheral artery disease spectrum using less invasive procedures. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings show that from 2006 to 2015, the overall survival increased and the risk of major lower limb amputation decreased following revascularization. These observations suggest that patient outcomes after lower limb revascularization have improved during a period of centralization and specialization of vascular services in the United Kingdom

Comparison of control charts for monitoring clinical performance using binary data.

BACKGROUND: Time series charts are increasingly used by clinical teams to monitor their performance, but statistical control charts are not widely used, partly due to uncertainty about which chart to use. Although there is a large literature on methods, there are few systematic comparisons of charts for detecting changes in rates of binary clinical performance data. METHODS: We compared four control charts for binary data: the Shewhart p-chart; the exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) chart; the cumulative sum (CUSUM) chart; and the g-chart. Charts were set up to have the same long-term false signal rate. Chart performance was then judged according to the expected number of patients treated until a change in rate was detected. RESULTS: For large absolute increases in rates (>10%), the Shewhart p-chart and EWMA both had good performance, although not quite as good as the CUSUM. For small absolute increases (<10%), the CUSUM detected changes more rapidly. The g-chart is designed to efficiently detect decreases in low event rates, but it again had less good performance than the CUSUM. IMPLICATIONS: The Shewhart p-chart is the simplest chart to implement and interpret, and performs well for detecting large changes, which may be useful for monitoring processes of care. The g-chart is a useful complement for determining the success of initiatives to reduce low-event rates (eg, adverse events). The CUSUM may be particularly useful for faster detection of problems with patient safety leading to increases in adverse event rates.  

Coding of Barrett's oesophagus with high-grade dysplasia in national administrative databases: a population-based cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: The International Classification of Diseases 10th Revision (ICD-10) system used in the English hospital administrative database (Hospital Episode Statistics (HES)) does not contain a specific code for oesophageal high-grade dysplasia (HGD). The aim of this paper was to examine how patients with HGD were coded in HES and whether it was done consistently. SETTING: National population-based cohort study of patients with newly diagnosed with HGD in England. The study used data collected prospectively as part of the National Oesophago-Gastric Cancer Audit (NOGCA). These records were linked to HES to investigate the pattern of ICD-10 codes recorded for these patients at the time of diagnosis. PARTICIPANTS: All patients with a new diagnosis of HGD between 1 April 2013 and 31 March 2014 in England, who had data submitted to the NOGCA. OUTCOMES MEASURED: The main outcome assessed was the pattern of primary and secondary ICD-10 diagnostic codes recorded in the HES records at endoscopy at the time of diagnosis of HGD. RESULTS: Among 452 patients with a new diagnosis of HGD between 1 April 2013 and 31 March 2014, Barrett's oesophagus was the only condition coded in 200 (44.2%) HES records. Records for 59 patients (13.1%) contained no oesophageal conditions. The remaining 193 patients had various diagnostic codes recorded, 93 included a diagnosis of Barrett's oesophagus and 57 included a diagnosis of oesophageal/gastric cardia cancer. CONCLUSIONS: HES is not suitable to support national studies looking at the management of HGD. This is one reason for the UK to adopt an extended ICD system (akin to ICD-10-CM)

The DetectDeviatingCells algorithm was a useful addition to the toolkit for cellwise error detection in observational data

OBJECTIVE: We evaluated the error detection performance of the DetectDeviatingCells (DDC) algorithm, which flags data anomalies at observation (casewise) and variable (cellwise) level in continuous variables. We compared its performance to other approaches in a simulated dataset. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We simulated height and weight data for hypothetical individuals aged 2-20 years. We changed a proportion of height values according to pre-determined error patterns. We applied the DDC algorithm and other error-detection approaches (descriptive statistics, plots, fixed-threshold rules, classic and robust Mahalanobis distance) and we compared error detection performance with sensitivity, specificity, likelihood ratios, predictive values and ROC curves. RESULTS: At our chosen thresholds, error detection specificity was excellent across all scenarios for all methods and sensitivity was higher for multivariable and robust methods. The DDC algorithm performance was similar to other robust multivariable methods. Analysis of ROC curves suggested that all methods had comparable performance for gross errors (e.g. wrong measurement unit), but the DDC algorithm outperformed the others for more complex error patterns (e.g. transcription errors that are still plausible, although extreme). CONCLUSIONS: The DDC algorithm has the potential to improve error detection processes for observational data

Re-organisation of oesophago-gastric cancer care in England: progress and remaining challenges

RIGHTS : This article is licensed under the BioMed Central licence at http://www.biomedcentral.com/about/license which is similar to the 'Creative Commons Attribution Licence'. In brief you may : copy, distribute, and display the work; make derivative works; or make commercial use of the work - under the following conditions: the original author must be given credit; for any reuse or distribution, it must be made clear to others what the license terms of this work are.Abstract Background Oesophago-gastric cancer services in England have been extensively reorganised since 2001 to deliver a centralised, specialist-led service. Our aim was to assess how well the National Health Service (NHS) in England met organisational standards for oesophago-gastric cancer care. Methods Questionnaires that asked about the provision of staging investigations, curative and palliative treatments and key personnel were sent in September 2007 to the lead clinician for oesophago-gastric cancer at all 30 cancer networks and 156 NHS acute trusts in England. Results Responses were received from all networks and 81% of NHS trusts. All networks provided essential staging investigations and a range of endoscopic palliative therapies. Only 16 of the 30 cancer networks discussed all patients at the specialist multi-disciplinary team meeting and 11 networks had not fully centralised curative surgery. There was also variation between NHS trusts in the integration of the palliative care team, the availability of nurse specialists and the use of dieticians to provide nutritional support. Conclusion There has been considerable progress in reforming oesophago-gastric cancer services but the process of reorganisation is still incomplete and regional differences in service provision exist that may lead to variation in patient outcomes.Published versio

Variation in rates of caesarean section among English NHS trusts after accounting for maternal and clinical risk: cross sectional study

Objective To determine whether the variation in unadjusted rates of caesarean section derived from routine data in NHS trusts in England can be explained by maternal characteristics and clinical risk factors

Perinatal mortality associated with induction of labour versus expectant management in nulliparous women aged 35 years or over: An English national cohort study.

BACKGROUND: A recent randomised controlled trial (RCT) demonstrated that induction of labour at 39 weeks of gestational age has no short-term adverse effect on the mother or infant among nulliparous women aged ≥35 years. However, the trial was underpowered to address the effect of routine induction of labour on the risk of perinatal death. We aimed to determine the association between induction of labour at ≥39 weeks and the risk of perinatal mortality among nulliparous women aged ≥35 years. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used English Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) data collected between April 2009 and March 2014 to compare perinatal mortality between induction of labour at 39, 40, and 41 weeks of gestation and expectant management (continuation of pregnancy to either spontaneous labour, induction of labour, or caesarean section at a later gestation). Analysis was by multivariable Poisson regression with adjustment for maternal characteristics and pregnancy-related conditions. Among the cohort of 77,327 nulliparous women aged 35 to 50 years delivering a singleton infant, 33.1% had labour induced: these women tended to be older and more likely to have medical complications of pregnancy, and the infants were more likely to be small for gestational age. Induction of labour at 40 weeks (compared with expectant management) was associated with a lower risk of in-hospital perinatal death (0.08% versus 0.26%; adjusted risk ratio [adjRR] 0.33; 95% CI 0.13-0.80, P = 0.015) and meconium aspiration syndrome (0.44% versus 0.86%; adjRR 0.52; 95% CI 0.35-0.78, P = 0.002). Induction at 40 weeks was also associated with a slightly increased risk of instrumental vaginal delivery (adjRR 1.06; 95% CI 1.01-1.11, P = 0.020) and emergency caesarean section (adjRR 1.05; 95% CI 1.01-1.09, P = 0.019). The number needed to treat (NNT) analysis indicated that 562 (95% CI 366-1,210) inductions of labour at 40 weeks would be required to prevent 1 perinatal death. Limitations of the study include the reliance on observational data in which gestational age is recorded in weeks rather than days. There is also the potential for unmeasured confounders and under-recording of induction of labour or perinatal death in the dataset. CONCLUSIONS: Bringing forward the routine offer of induction of labour from the current recommendation of 41-42 weeks to 40 weeks of gestation in nulliparous women aged ≥35 years may reduce overall rates of perinatal death

The impact of a national clinician-led audit initiative on care and mortality after hip fracture in England: an external evaluation using time trends in non-audit data.

BACKGROUND: Hip fracture is the most common serious injury of older people. The UK National Hip Fracture Database (NHFD) was launched in 2007 as a national collaborative, clinician-led audit initiative to improve the quality of hip fracture care, but has not yet been externally evaluated. METHODS: We used routinely collected data on 471,590 older people (aged 60 years and older) admitted with a hip fracture to National Health Service (NHS) hospitals in England between 2003 and 2011. The main variables of interest were the use of early surgery (on day of admission, or day after) and mortality at 30 days from admission. We compared time trends in the periods 2003-2007 and 2007-2011 (before and after the launch of the NHFD), using Poisson regression models to adjust for demographic changes. FINDINGS: The number of hospitals participating in the NHFD increased from 11 in 2007 to 175 in 2011. From 2007 to 2011, the rate of early surgery increased from 54.5% to 71.3%, whereas the rate had remained stable over the period 2003-2007. Thirty-day mortality fell from 10.9% to 8.5%, compared with a small reduction from 11.5% to 10.9% previously. The annual relative reduction in adjusted 30-day mortality was 1.8% per year in the period 2003-2007, compared with 7.6% per year over 2007-2011 (P<0.001 for the difference). INTERPRETATION: The launch of a national clinician-led audit initiative was associated with substantial improvements in care and survival of older people with hip fracture in England